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气候变化与发电系统的设计
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气候变化与发电系统的设计

March 10, 2016 • Photo of the week, 最近文章汇总

电气系统的设计通常是根据看历史数据,从而对产生对结构和部件可能应力进行预测。然而有些时候,这种方法是有问题的。在气候变化国际协议的评估报告得出的结论是相当程度下气候变化是不可避免的,现在,即使是到位的温室气体排放侵略性路肩。仍然有很大的不确定性关于极端天气的性质,程度和频率气候变化展开。但许多研究表明增加的频率和这些事件的强度在大多数地方,对能源基础设施明显的存在潜在威胁。例如,模型预测在极端温度大幅升温到本世纪结束时,强降水或降水总量将有跌幅较大的比例,从热带气旋增加的最大风速的次数将会增多,但不一定是在所有海洋盆地发生。 这些问题的重要性和时效性表现在特殊IPCC的报告,管理极端事件风险,推进气候变化适应,发表在2012年在全球范围内,几十万亿美元将不得不投资于能源系统在未来几十年和许多新安装都将被暴露在他们几十年的寿命来显著变化的天气模式。采用当今和历史天气和季节气候的数据是目前由世界各地的公用事业和监管机构的日常风险管理的一部分。然而,鉴于上述情况,整合于使设计和运营决策时变化的气候前瞻性信息的迅速成为重要得多。 The design of electrical systems is typically made looking at historic data in order to generate a prediction of likely service stresses on structures and components. These days, however, this approach is questionable. The Assessment Report of the International Protocol on Climate Change concluded that considerable climate change is now unavoidable, even if aggressive curbs on greenhouse gas emissions are put in place. There is still a great deal of uncertainly regarding the nature, magnitude and frequency of extreme weather as climate change unfolds. But many studies indicate increasing frequency and intensity of such events in most places, with obvious potential threat to energy infrastructure. For example, models predict substantial warming in temperature extremes by the end of this century, increased frequency of heavy precipitation or proportion of total rainfall from heavy falls, and increased maximum wind speeds from tropical cyclones, although not necessarily in all ocean basins. The importance and timeliness of these issues is demonstrated by the special IPCC report, Managing the Risks of Extreme Events to Advance Climate Change Adaptation, published in 2012. Globally, tens of trillions of dollars will have to be invested in energy systems over the coming decades and many new installations will be exposed to significantly changing weather patterns over their multi-decade lifetimes. Use of present-day and historic weather and seasonal climate data is presently part of everyday risk management by utilities and regulators across the globe. However, in view of the above, integration of forward-looking information on changing climate when making design and operational decisions is rapidly becoming much more important.

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